A match where the home side's name and court are carrying more of the price than its numbers. Orlando is on the second night of a back-to-back, has lost another ball handler, and has been outscored by 9 a game over six official games. Washington has had three days off and gets points through the free-throw line and the paint.
Orlando lives on about 39 threes a game. When they fall, as at Toronto, it wins; when they do not, as against Minnesota, it loses by 20 or more. Its second quarter is the leak, 31.2 allowed on average, and a short rotation played 26 to 39 minutes on the previous night. Washington's offence is steadier: it shot 35 free throws against Charlotte and 41 against Milwaukee, and is plus 0.8 a game.
Washington's own risk is fading after halftime, as it did at Cleveland. But rest, margin and the way it scores are the sturdier side of this matchup. That's why I'm siding with Washington to win outright.
