Oklahoma City is likely to start strong and build an early lead while their rested first unit is on the floor. As the game transitions into the second half and both teams turn to their benches, the flow should flip. Indiana's fresh depth players will outpace an exhausted bench unit that played heavy minutes yesterday and traveled, allowing the away side to erase the deficit.
Oklahoma City relies on a high-paced, highly efficient perimeter offense, and their primary rotation is fresh after resting yesterday. However, the unavoidable consequence is that their bench is heavily fatigued from absorbing vast minutes in an away game just a day prior. In preseason basketball, starters rarely play full rotation minutes, meaning the outcome and final margin are heavily dictated by the depth units in the second half.
The central matchup is the battle of the secondary units. Indiana's entire roster, including their bench, has had three full days of rest to prepare. They will match up against a heavily fatigued bench that also had to travel back home. This extreme second-half fatigue for the closing lineup creates a massive disparity in fresh legs. Because of this massive structural advantage for the fresh depth, I am siding with the away team.
