Napoli and Roma bring a direct clash between a pressing first line and a deeper passing exit. The second ball after that press could matter as much as the first pass. Chelsea and Tottenham also have live wide routes, with the central space behind Spurs' press likely to decide how often Chelsea reach their finishers. Both matches turn on what each team can create after its first route is checked.
Napoli can use De Bruyne's deeper passing to release Politano, then find McTominay arriving beyond Højlund. That response appeared after Bodø equalized, and Napoli still made 29 shots and 2.44 expected goals in the Venezia loss. Roma's Koné and Pellegrini are out; Pellegrini left the latest Slovan match injured, while Koné had already missed it. De Bruyne played the full Bodø match, and Rrahmani played too, though Napoli's central defensive pairing is projected rather than confirmed. Roma's Malen and Soulé can attack behind that pairing, but Napoli's repeat wing and midfield entries give them the better route to avoid an away defeat. I'm siding with Napoli.
Chelsea can move through Caicedo and Henderson into Palmer and Rogers, then use Neto or Hato to supply João Pedro. Everton kept them level at halftime before the Hato cutback opened the game, showing the attack can find another route after the first spell. Spurs' Bergvall and Bentancur missed Coventry and remain out, while Maddison's first start in a long time lasted 69 minutes; Chelsea's Martínez played 75 minutes at Everton before his injury, leaving Penders in goal. Tottenham have Solanke and wide service, but their Coventry goals came from unusually productive long shots rather than repeated close chances. Chelsea's available creators and finishers give them the stronger path through the changed midfield press. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea to win.
