Roma's pressure against Napoli's first pass gives this fixture an unusually direct route from a regain to the box. Napoli have a clear answer in De Bruyne's early release to the wings and McTominay's late arrival. The contest can produce a second wave after either side's first attack. Chelsea and Tottenham have a similar first-pass contest, with both sides able to reach the wide channel after beating pressure.
Roma's high regains can release Soulé or Malen before Napoli's defence settles. Napoli can escape to Politano or Lang and send Højlund and McTominay toward the cross or rebound. Pellegrini is out after playing in Roma's last match, while Gollini has replaced Svilar; Napoli's Rrahmani had a fever report after playing the full Champions League match. Both teams can create another close contact after the opening goal, so I'm siding with a more open Napoli–Roma score.
Chelsea's Caicedo and Henderson can collect the next ball behind Palmer and Rogers, then recycle it to Neto, Hato or João Pedro. Tottenham can play through Van Hecke and Tonali to Kudus or Robertson, with Solanke waiting for the last pass. Bergvall and Savio missed Spurs' latest match and are ruled out, while Maddison's training interruption follows his recent start; Chelsea's usual attacking group played its last match even though Martínez is now out in goal. Chelsea's stronger second-wave supply and central recovery make me side with a Chelsea win.
