Game 2 of the NLDS sets a 102-win Brewers team and its rookie starter against a Padres side that has already shown it can make Milwaukee work. I keep coming back to the pitching matchup: Michael King has been about as steady as it gets in October, while Logan Henderson is making his first playoff start. The Padres also made life miserable for the Brewers' starter in Game 1, and that approach doesn't depend on who is on the mound. That is where I land on this one.
Henderson is no pushover. He is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP, and Milwaukee's bullpen did not give up a run over the last five innings of the opener. The Brewers lead the series 1-0 and have the better record by a wide margin, 102-59 against 90-71.
But the Padres have a real track record against this exact group. They won all three games in Milwaukee in August (3-2, 11-2 and 4-3) and lead the season series 5-4. Henderson's one start against them this year went 6.1 innings and cost him three runs on seven hits.
King, meanwhile, threw seven scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series and carries a 2.05 career postseason ERA. In Game 1 the Padres fouled off 30 of Jacob Misiorowski's 88 pitches and chased him after four innings, and they scored 5.3 runs a game over their last ten. The opener was decided by one swing in the seventh, which tells me the gap between these teams is thinner than the records say.
