These three games all hinge on the response after the first run. Miami and Dallas can trade paint pressure and perimeter creation. Boston's pressure will test Chicago's ball handling, while Indiana and Milwaukee have both shown that a lead can change hands before the final quarter. The next possession after a comeback matters as much as the comeback itself.
Miami can use Giannis and Bam to press Dallas inside, but Irving returns after managed rest and Flagg has been upgraded to probable after missing Dallas's last game. Sasser and de Larrea provide further outlets when Miami crowds the first action. Miami has allowed each of its three opponents to score freely and did not hold its defensive re-lead against Charlotte. That's why I'm siding with Dallas to stay competitive through the final score.
Boston's White and wings can create a lead with pressure, but Chicago followed its Toronto turnover collapse with cleaner handling in its next two games. Giddey and Jones can organize the response, and Smith, Wilson, Powell and Buzelis offer scoring when the first option is closed. Chicago's listed absences were already present in the recent rotation, while Boston's two league leads narrowed late. I'm siding with Chicago to remain within reach by the finish.
Milwaukee's Herro and Jaquez can score, and Turner with Ware can create extra shots inside. Indiana's Haliburton and Siakam have already supplied a late answer; after Zubac left the Brooklyn game, Huff and Nance filled the center minutes and Toppin added another outlet. Nembhard played in that game and is listed questionable for this one, while Nesmith is probable. Milwaukee's repeated turnovers and unfinished defensive possessions make Indiana's second and third scoring routes decisive for me, so I'm siding with Indiana to win.
