This is a two-way, open game, and Roma's style goes straight at the phase where United keep losing matches. United's recent defeats share a cause: the ball lost in midfield under pressure, set pieces defended badly, and individual errors. Gasperini's man-to-man press and Roma's crossing, set-piece attack target exactly those weak spots. Roma's absence list looks serious on paper, but it is already built into their recent scoring.
United have one win in ten, and they are not short of the ball. They had 63 percent of it against Bournemouth and still lost. What they lack is chance creation, around one expected goal a game, plus a habit of giving goals away. Como scored after a midfield turnover, Chelsea's opener came from a loss in the pivot, and Bournemouth's free kick found a man alone at the back post.
The key matchup is Roma's press against United's double pivot. Behind it, Roma's wing-backs deliver crosses for Cristante and the centre-backs arriving late, and Ndicka and Balerdi have both scored from set pieces recently. United's best answer is Fernandes finding space between Roma's short midfield lines, with Mbeumo and Amad running behind the wing-backs.
About the absences: Svilar, Pellegrini and Kone also missed the 5-2 at Udinese, the 4-2 against Cagliari and the 3-3 at Napoli. Nearly the same XI scored all those goals. United are missing Sesko, Shaw, Rashford, Ugarte and Dorgu, and they have scored once in their last four games.
I expect chances at both ends, with United pushing under pressure and leaving space behind them. United are stronger with Fernandes and Mainoo back, so the draw is a real outcome. That's why I'm backing Roma not to lose, with my stake protected if it ends level.
