The table and the raw records make this look like a home side against a visitor who cannot win on the road. Put those records next to who each side actually played, though, and the gap mostly disappears. Malaga are bottom and still winless, with the weakest attack in the league. Racing are the side with the ball and the passers.
Malaga play a 4-1-4-1 with Enriquez as the single pivot and create very little: about 0.8 expected goals and 11 shots a game, while conceding around 17 shots. Their goals come mostly from Adrian Nino running in behind, and they have dropped leads late, as at Alaves. At home they have failed to beat Levante and Espanyol.
Racing's away record looks ugly, but all five hosts were sides with strong home records: Getafe, Rayo, Barcelona, Celta and Osasuna. Two of those defeats were by a single goal. At home Racing turned possession into real volume, with 23 shots against Espanyol and 20 against Valencia.
The key matchup is Nino against Racing's rebuilt right side. Mantilla is out after getting hurt against Madrid, so Pedro Felipe is expected at right-back. That is Malaga's one clear route to goal. In midfield, Canales, Vicente and Ivan Martin should have plenty of the ball against a Malaga block that gives up shots to everyone.
The absences cut differently than the headlines suggest. Malaga's long list is not new: those players were already missing from the games that make Malaga a low-chance team. Racing's losses are new, with Andres Martin, their dribbler, out alongside Mantilla. That makes their attack less dangerous against a block, but they still have Zabiri, who scored against both Espanyol and Valencia.
Expect Racing to hold most of the ball in a slow first half, with Malaga waiting for Nino's runs. A draw is a very natural result here, since Malaga have drawn five of eleven. But if Racing score first from volume, a corner or a long shot, Malaga have shown no way of coming back.
That's why I'm siding with Racing Santander, with the draw covered.
