The best guide to this match is the one played six days ago. Machida held the ball against a Shenhua back five, managed only three shots on target and won 1-0 from a corner second ball. Shenhua come in with largely the same absences, and Machida face a heavy league week. The structure points to possession against a deep block, with set pieces as the main route to goal.
Machida's attack does not overwhelm organised defences. Against teams that are not weak, their last ten games read 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. The big scores came only against weak J1 sides. Their defence has kept eight straight clean sheets, partly thanks to their keeper Tani, who made nine saves against Gamba.
Shenhua are a high-volume side in China, but against compact blocks that volume turns into poor shots: four on target from twenty at Shenzhen, three against Machida. Losing left-back Chen for the season also takes away their main crossing outlet, which leaves Ratao's counters through the middle and set pieces.
The injury news on Shenhua sounds dramatic, but it mostly describes the same back line that held Machida to one goal last week. On Machida's side, coach Kuroda talks about relaying his squad ahead of the big Hiroshima game, so the less incisive ACL attack group is likely to start again.
I expect a cautious first half, with a Machida set piece as the most likely opener. After that, Machida have no reason to chase a third goal with Hiroshima coming, and Shenhua's chasing starts from a weakened squad.
That's why I'm backing a tight, low-scoring game in this rematch.
