Macarthur and Wanderers should be decided by the first pass out of pressure and the quality of the shot that follows. Wanderers have shown a strong press, while Macarthur have a compact middle and a useful later supply route. In Kawasaki, the comparable possession battle is between Yokohama's ball security and the home side's ability to finish stops with rebounds.
Talay expects Macarthur to defend in a mid-block, which is a different target from the open Auckland side Wanderers punished. Sydney held Wanderers scoreless despite plenty of box entries, while Fraser's supply to Touré gave Macarthur a real response at Newcastle. Macarthur's named injured players were absent from that last comeback; Lual was also absent from Wanderers' Auckland scoring surge. Fraser and Touré remain in the extended squad. I expect Macarthur to keep the central space tighter and find a reply through that supply-and-run combination. That's why I'm siding with Macarthur to stay in the contest.
Kawasaki's latest win had several scorers and a strong Kirk-Bonds rebounding effort. Yokohama's Namizato, Bell and Kotsar can create shots, but their recent road attacks and defensive rebounding have been thin. McGusty and King did not play Yokohama's last game; their older notices are no fresh match-day ruling, and Bell has already taken real minutes in the current rotation. Kawasaki's secondary handlers and frontcourt can keep producing after the first action and close the next defensive possession. That's why I'm siding with Brave Thunders to win.
