Lyon against Angers asks whether a home pattern of early threat survives without a recognised striker, against a back five that gives up the ball and leaks in the first half. The visitors' best forward outlet is listed out, so their ability to punish any Lyon doubt is limited. In Atlanta, one side has nothing left to protect and the other can only use a win. That combination should shape the second half far more than the first.
Lyon led at half-time in four of five home games and made at least 1.50 xG in all of them. They don't need the ball to do it: 45% possession brought 3.13 xG against Rennes. With Openda, Sulc and Himbert out, Nuamah is reported to be moving to the middle, and the nearest comparison is Palace at home, where a false 9 still produced 2.05 xG and a 2-0 half-time lead. Half of Lyon's home league goals came with neither Openda nor Sulc involved in the last two actions.
The routes that remain are Athekame's runs against Kalulu's side, Duranville and Nakamura carrying the ball, Tolisso and Tessmann arriving late, and set pieces for Niakhate and Bacher. Angers conceded in the first half in five of eight league games. With Lefort and Camara back they held Lorient to 0.54 xG, but before October, with those two available, they still allowed between 1.02 and 1.81 xG a game.
At the other end, Angers rely on Sbai's carrying and Van den Boomen's delivery. El Ouazzani went off injured early against Lorient and Angers finished that game on 0.26 xG. I expect Lyon to lead by half-time or soon after, then drop deeper and invite a late spell, as they did against Nice and Palace. A narrow win fits that well, so I'm siding with Lyon to take the points.
In Atlanta, Columbus's win made a draw worthless to Toronto, so they must open up at some stage. That matters because Toronto are two different teams: 0.60 xG sitting at Red Bulls, but 2.86 and 2.51 when chasing. Their second halves have been far bigger than their first, such as 0.47 then 2.38 at Columbus and 0.13 then 1.38 against DC.
Atlanta, already eliminated and in their last home match, concede in the same phase. Cincinnati went from 0.40 xG before half-time to 1.49 after it, and Chicago from 0.28 to 1.49, helped by build-up errors from Hoyos. Sargent's work rate goes straight at that weakness. Almiron and Miranchuk feeding Embolo, plus their dead balls, meet a Toronto defence without Zimmerman and Franklin, and Atlanta are without Mihaj at the back themselves.
Atlanta's last five home matches had 22 goals, and none had fewer than four. The first half may stay compact, as Laryea has asked, but a quiet opening doesn't change the picture: Cincinnati's visit was goalless at the break and finished 1-3. Level at the hour, Toronto add attackers, and if Atlanta score first the counters open up. That's why I'm going with plenty of goals in this one.
