Both matches look tight, with the edge small and sitting on the side that is less likely to lose. Neither is a game for a big margin; they are decided by one set piece or one transition.
Liverpool and Arsenal have met ten times with five draws, and the last four were close or level. Arsenal are the cleaner two-way team, but they are without Saka, and they were held by a lower side despite 26 shots recently. Liverpool at home bring comparable shot and on-target volume, and score in nearly every game. A one-goal game or a draw is the centre. That's why I'm siding with Liverpool not losing at home.
Lecce are leaking about two goals a game, conceded five at Frosinone, and are missing both starting forwards and three midfielders, on short rest. Genoa have won their last two, including 2-0 over Juventus, with a compact structure and only need one goal. Their away scoring is poor, so a draw is a real outcome. That's why I'm siding with Genoa.
