This is a possession side against a home back five, and the two form lines hide more than they show. Leeds' bad run is an away problem. At Elland Road they have not lost in four league games and have matched or beaten the opponent's chance quality in three of them. Tottenham's three straight wins came with a lot of help from game state, so the gap between the sides is much smaller than the table suggests.
Tottenham under De Zerbi hold the ball for long spells, take plenty of corners and defend well: none of their last four league opponents created much. Against eleven men, though, their attack has been ordinary. At Chelsea they made little before Palmer's red card. Palace were down to ten men from the 13th minute. Coventry's keeper had a nightmare. Their goals tend to come late, from centre-backs arriving at set pieces or from substitutes.
Leeds defend in a five and build in a four. At home their chances arrive mostly after the break, when Farke brings on runners like Nmecha and Aaronson. Twice this season they fell behind at home and came back the same way, with crosses to Calvert-Lewin. That route matters most here. He missed a training session with a minor foot issue but played the last match, and Farke sounded cautiously optimistic.
Tottenham get Bentancur back from suspension and Tosin back in training, which helps their midfield control. Most of their long absentee list was already missing during the winning run, so it changes little. Leeds may be without Okafor, with Aaronson or Wilson stepping into that creative role.
I expect a quiet first half with Tottenham on the ball and Leeds picking moments to press. The second half should open up, with a set piece or a late goal deciding it. A draw is very possible, but if someone wins it, Leeds' home content and their crossing route make them at least as likely as Tottenham. That's why I'm siding with Leeds, with protection if it ends level.
