Kyoto against Newcastle Jets looks like a game the market is reading through the wrong lens. The Jets were beaten heavily by Kashima and Gamba, two sides that carried the ball. Kyoto play the opposite way and create far less. In Turkish volleyball, Sungurlu against Galatasaray is about one direction above all: Galatasaray's serve against a Sungurlu reception that has already broken twice this season.
Under Popovic, Kyoto play without the ball, holding somewhere between a quarter and under half of possession in recent games. In that role their chance creation is thin. In their one win in this competition, at home to Ratchaburi, they had less of the ball and scored in the 88th minute. They have not won by two or more in their last twenty matches. Their wins and draws come late and by one goal.
The Jets keep the ball well, about half of it even at Kashima, and score roughly once a game in this competition. Their back line is makeshift, with Cooper out and Shaughnessy injured last weekend, and that is Kyoto's best route through an early press. But Kyoto are on their fourth match in ten days, and a pressing side is the first to lose its edge when tired. That's why I'm siding with the Jets to keep this close.
In Corum, newly promoted Sungurlu have won one set in seven. Five of their six lost sets went by four points or more. Gebze's serve broke their side-out game, and Galatasaray bring a spread attack in Maar, Mandiraci and Koc, with Ma'a setting a stable six. Galatasaray's weakness is closing out tight sets, but Sungurlu rarely get close enough to use it. That's why I'm siding with Galatasaray to win comfortably on sets.
