Two very different games, both decided by who creates more and who leaks more. In Shanghai, a possession-heavy visitor meets a home side that gives up a lot of shots on target and penalties. In Gwangju, two starters who have both been hittable against this exact opponent meet in a tied series.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida: Machida average around 16 shots a game with about six on target and a clearly better chance balance over their recent stat games. Shenhua are open and high-volume, but they concede a lot of shots on target and have given away several penalties in their last ten. Machida's weak spot is finishing: they were held scoreless at Kobe despite 19 shots, and the home side's volume plus any set-piece or penalty is the way back in. Nothing in the data points to rotation, and rest is level. That's why I'm siding with Machida, with a draw handled by the market type.
KIA Tigers vs Samsung Lions: this is Game 3 of a tied series. Samsung's starter was hit hard by KIA this season, with a high ERA and plenty of hits over three starts, while KIA's starter strikes batters out but walks too many against Samsung. Samsung is also reported to be without its closer, and both bullpens have been used in the first two games. Both teams' recent scoring blends sit at or above the posted total. That's why I'm leaning to more runs than the line suggests.
