Two J1 matches where one side's attack is weaker than the table or the scorelines suggest. Verdy under their new coach have barely created a chance, and they now meet one of the tightest defences in the league. Kawasaki's recent big wins came from long-range finishing and spells against ten men, not from controlling games. In both, the real question is whether the weaker attack can find a way through a defence built to stop exactly what it does.
Marinos v Verdy. Marinos under Corica keep the ball in midfield and give very little away: nine conceded in ten league games, and two straight league clean sheets, including a game at Cerezo where they allowed almost nothing. Their problem is at the other end, with plenty of shots but few on target. Verdy are bottom and changed coach this month. In two league games under Soma they set up in a deep 4-4-2 and produced six shots in one and two in the other. They have not scored in three regulation games.
Verdy's plan is to go long to the forwards and fight for second balls. The forward who gave that plan a target, Someno, is suspended after his red card against FC Tokyo, and other forwards are out long-term. Marinos' centre-backs have already said they expect that long ball. Verdy also win very few corners, so they rarely get set pieces either. Expect Marinos to have the ball against a low block. Whether Marinos break it down or not, Verdy finding a goal is the least likely thing in this match. That's why I'm siding with Verdy being kept off the scoresheet.
Kawasaki v Kobe. Kawasaki keep the ball and score from midfield, with Tachibana, Wakisaka and Ozeki shooting from distance and Miura delivering set pieces. But they made fewer chances than Cerezo even with an extra man for most of that game, and at home to Nagoya they were outshot. Their first-choice centre-backs are missing or doubtful: Taniguchi is out, Hayashi missed the last squad, and Asahi Sasaki came off injured.
Kobe under Skibbe press high and go direct, with crosses for Osako and Muto, long throws and set plays. That is exactly the tool for a short build-up running through a patched-up back line. They had 21 shots at Okayama, and Skibbe praised the press. Their bench also scored at Kashiwa, so rotation does not remove the threat. The likely flow is Kobe winning the ball high and attacking a makeshift line in the air, and Kawasaki relying on long shots that are hard to repeat. That's why I'm siding with Kobe here.
