Kashima at home is a side that controls the ball and creates quality. Kashiwa scores freely but looks looser away, and its last away game gave up a lot of chances. The likely picture is a home side with the better shots and a visitor that scores only on crosses and counters.
Kashima's recent sampled games show clearly better chance quality and more shots on target than their opponents. At home they have won nine of ten and scored far more than they have conceded. Kashiwa conceded heavy expected goals away at Tokyo and comes off a home loss. Both sides have cover for their doubtful midfielders, so those flags do not change the balance.
The flow should start with Kashima pressing early and testing Kashiwa's away structure. The restart and the last stretch are where benches and ACL rotation can open space. That's why I'm siding with Kashima at home to win.
