Two favourites that look weaker than their price suggests. Juventus have lost exactly the players who build a winning margin, and they now face a deep block. Bournemouth's strong recent numbers came against weaker sides, and their high line has been opened early by every top team they have played.
Juventus against Rennes. Yildiz, Conceicao and Zhegrova, the wide players who beat a man one against one, are out, and so are midfield organisers Locatelli and Thuram. The back line of Bremer, Gatti and Vicario is intact, so Juventus should keep things tight, but creating chances is another matter. Both lineup reports have Rennes in a back three or five, which is the setting where Juventus's shots come from range: 14 of 22 at Cagliari were from outside the box. Their recent goals came after the hour, so there is little time to build a second. That's why I'm siding with Rennes to keep this close.
Bournemouth against AC Milan. Rose's press-and-high-line side has lost to City, Liverpool and Chelsea this season, conceding early at Chelsea, and their home record is full of draws. Their recent clean-sheet wins came against a ten-man Sunderland and Sturm Graz. Milan are rotating and have lost Ramos and Chukwueze, but the rotated XI is the same kind of unit that ran behind Salzburg in a 4-0 win, and Bournemouth's right side is patched with Araujo out. After the hour Milan can bring on Rabiot, Pulisic and Modric. That's why I'm siding with Milan not to lose.
