Two continental matches, two very different shapes. In Jeonju, Johor will have the ball and Jeonbuk will go long and direct, and both sides have a real way to score at this level. In Kobe, the hosts will circulate against a tall, deep Ratchaburi block that has held up well against Japanese opposition, so chances should come slowly.
Jeonbuk vs Johor. Johor arrive on a long winning run, but most of it came against domestic sides, bottom-of-the-table Port and a Pohang side down to ten men. Against peer-level attacks they have conceded, at home to Buriram and twice at Sanfrecce. Jeonbuk, meanwhile, don't need the ball in this competition. They had barely over a third of it in the home win over Kashiwa and the draw at Beijing, and still scored twice each time from crosses, corners and late changes.
The key matchups run both ways. Arif Aiman and Johor's right side are their main source of goals, and Jeonbuk's back line concedes almost every game. At the other end, corner delivery and aerial forwards like Tiago and Mota test a Johor defence that hasn't faced a real aerial side. Because Jeonbuk go long, Johor's press is partly bypassed. Johor's forward line is thinner with Bergson a doubt and Yago reported out, but their goals come from wide crosses, which still works with Zahedi and Guilherme. Jeonbuk's coach calls it a must-win at home, which pushes them forward and gives Johor counter space too. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends.
Vissel Kobe vs Ratchaburi. Kobe are top of the group with three wins, all with three goals or fewer, and their attack produces modest chances most weeks. Skibbe has said he will change several players. Ratchaburi's record looks leaky because of one wild home game where they chased from four down. Against Japanese sides, though, their block held: Kyoto needed an 88th-minute goal, and Kashiwa managed only two shots on target in a goalless draw.
The main matchup is Kobe's crosses, long throws and set pieces against Ratchaburi's tall centre-backs, with Insua fit again after playing the full game against Kashiwa. A rotated Kobe front line has less understanding to break a narrow block early, and with Urawa next in the league, Kobe have every reason to manage a lead rather than chase. Ratchaburi themselves created very little against Japanese sides, so a second goal source is thin. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game in Kobe.
