[2026-27 NBA] Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors Preview and Analysis Tip-off: November 5, 02:00 UTC
Denver’s offense runs through Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Toronto try to take the ball away or recover missed shots to create more possessions.
1. Game overview and team form
Murray has scored 164 points in Denver’s six games this season, while Jokic has 132 points and 54 assists. Head coach David Adelman said the two are carrying too much of the offensive load and that the team needs to get its three-point attempts into the mid-30s (Denver Sports, Nov. 2 local time). The numbers back him up: Denver made 15, 12 and 20 threes in its three wins, but only 8, 10 and 9 in its three losses (Denver Stiffs, Nov. 4 local time). With Jokic shooting 22.6% from three, it matters that his teammates turn his passes into makes from the perimeter.
Denver’s most recent game against the Portland Trail Blazers showed the risk it faces today. The Nuggets led 31-19 after the first quarter, but gave up 21 offensive rebounds and grabbed only 9 of their own, then were outscored 60-44 in the second half. Adelman pointed out that Portland’s guards joined the fight for rebounds (Denver Sports, Nov. 2 local time). Trevon Brazile partly filled in for the absent Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther. Brazile had three dunks and five rebounds in 18 minutes in the last game, but Denver’s bench scored only 4 points in the second half (Denver Stiffs, Nov. 3 local time). Cameron Johnson is likely to play after managing a lower-body issue. If his minutes increase, Brazile could see less time.
Toronto averaged 11.7 steals over its first seven games and forced opponents into 20.4 turnovers. The Raptors have made only 11.1 threes per game on average, fewer than their opponents. Against the Los Angeles Lakers, Toronto collected 22 offensive rebounds and took 105 shots, yet trailed by 22 points through three quarters. It was a reminder that extra possessions do not erase a deficit when the shots miss. Jakob Poeltl’s status is uncertain because of left shoulder bursitis, and Nate Bittle is out (NBA official injury report, Nov. 4). With Poeltl missing two games, Collin Murray-Boyles played center and helped on the offensive glass, but Toronto gave up 131 and 118 points in those games. The Raptors are in Denver for their third road game after a back-to-back in Los Angeles.
2. Matchup analysis
The first matchup is Toronto’s pressure against Denver’s ball security. Denver averages 15.5 turnovers through six games. On the road against the New Orleans Pelicans, the Nuggets committed 12 turnovers in the first half alone, allowing a lead that had reached 22 points to shrink. When the ball-handling drops off with Murray resting, Toronto can use steals to start its offense. If Jokic draws pressure and finds the open man, Denver can attack the space the defense leaves with a three or a shot at the rim. Whether the Nuggets can increase their perimeter attempts in this stretch, as Adelman wants, will be a key factor.
The second matchup is whether Toronto can contain Jokic in the paint and still secure rebounds. If Poeltl is out or plays limited minutes, Murray-Boyles will spend more time guarding Jokic. Poeltl has averaged 20.2 minutes this season (Yahoo Sports, Nov. 4). If Toronto sends help at Jokic, he can create shots for the teammate who receives his pass. If the Raptors guard him one-on-one, he can attack the rim himself. Toronto has allowed opponents an average of 32.0 free-throw attempts through seven games. The Raptors can also target Denver’s weakness with offensive rebounds. The gap in shot attempts could depend on whether Denver plays Brazile for longer to help on the glass or keeps more time available for its other offensive options.
Denver’s starters are likely to create chances through Jokic’s passing early. Toronto’s deeper rotation will then face the Nuggets’ bench. If Denver’s bench scoring dries up as it did in the last game, Murray and Christian Braun may need to return earlier. If Toronto generates turnovers and offensive rebounds during that stretch, it can cut into the early lead.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Denver to lead with Jokic’s scoring and passing in the paint during the starters’ minutes, with Toronto chasing through pressure and offensive rebounds when the benches are in. If Jokic draws fouls against a smaller center and creates more three-point attempts for his teammates, Denver has more ways to score. Toronto may take more shots, but its perimeter efficiency could limit how much it gets from those extra attempts. We favor Denver to win, though we expect the game to stay close late and the score to be high as free throws and second chances add up.
The market has pointed to Denver’s established roster, home-court advantage and Toronto’s gap at center as reasons to back the Nuggets. We agree on the winner, but expect a smaller margin. Denver has let opponents back into games after taking leads, through turnovers, bench issues and rebounding. Toronto can increase its possessions in those same ways. If Denver makes around 10 threes, as it did in its three losses, Toronto’s shot-attempt advantage gives it a better chance to turn the game around.
[Final picks · by market · Betman lines] Moneyline: Win. Jokic can score in the paint and draw free throws against a smaller center, while Toronto’s weakness defending the perimeter lines up with Adelman’s push for more three-point attempts. Handicap -4.5: Loss. Toronto’s pressure and offensive rebounding can close the gap during the bench minutes without Jones and Strawther and early in the fourth quarter, leaving the game within a few possessions. Over/under 232.5: Over. Toronto gets to the free-throw line often and gives up plenty of attempts. Jokic’s ability to draw fouls in the paint, along with Toronto’s offensive rebounds and transition chances, should lift the total.
