Two MLS games where the numbers say the same thing: lots of chances at both ends and defences that are not at full strength. One is a high-event home side against a visitor with thin centre-back cover; the other pairs a tight home block against a visitor that shoots about twenty times a game.
Inter Miami host FC Cincinnati. Miami average roughly 1.7 expected goals for and 1.9 against over their last ten, and Cincinnati sit around 1.7 for and 1.6 against. Cincinnati are missing both Malatini and Robinson at centre-back, so Miami's front line, with Messi, Suarez and Berterame, meets a thin back pair. Cincinnati's Denkey and Barlow will run at a Miami defence that gives up chances too. The only meeting this year finished 3-5. Both sides have been playing games with plenty of goals in most of their recent matches. I'm siding with goals in this one.
Nashville SC host Philadelphia Union. Nashville are first in the table and have conceded very little at home, but they lose centre-back Presthus. Philadelphia take close to twenty shots a game and have scored in each of their last ten, even with a couple of forwards out. Nashville also create well, around 2.3 expected goals per game, so even a slightly leaky Philadelphia back line should give them enough. I'm backing goals here as well, with Philadelphia's volume the main driver.
