The market is heavily overreacting to the raw recent form lines heading into this final. Indonesia's massive victory in their previous match came against vastly inferior opposition, while Thailand's recent loss featured a heavily rotated squad designed to rest key regulars for this exact moment. With those core players returning, the structural gap between these two teams is much smaller than the current prices suggest.
Thailand's decision to rest their starting lineup in their final group match artificially deflated their form metrics, creating significant value. Meanwhile, Indonesia's nine-goal thriller against Bangladesh paints a picture of an unstoppable attack, but the step up in defensive quality they will face in the final is drastic.
Furthermore, the head-to-head history strongly supports the visitors, who have remained undefeated against Indonesia in their last three encounters over the past five years. When a seasoned side rests its best players to prepare for a final, judging them on the resulting rotated performance is a mistake.
