Two games, one shared idea: in both, the side that looks sharper on paper has less going for it than the headline numbers say. Indonesia's goals in the group came mostly from one rout, and Thailand's first-choice team hasn't conceded yet. In Eger, a tired Ukraine U21 meets an Albania side that hasn't played in four months. I expect both games to be tighter than their reputations.
Indonesia put nine past Bangladesh, but look at the other two games. Against Singapore it was 1-0 until Singapore had a man sent off at 70, and the second goal was a penalty. At Malaysia it finished 0-0, with Indonesia down to ten after Thom Haye's red card. That's one open-play goal in 180 minutes against organised defences. Haye is back after serving his ban, so they're at full strength, but the attacking question stays the same.
Thailand's group record looks shakier than it is. Their first-choice side beat Pakistan 4-0 and Vietnam 2-0 without conceding. The 1-2 loss to the Philippines came after they had already qualified, with a changed line-up and key players rested for the final. Those players last went the full distance six days before this final. This is a one-off final settled on 90 minutes, and neither side wants to concede first, so I expect a cagey match. That suits Thailand's compact shape.
In Eger, Ukraine U21 play their third match in nine days. This friendly comes right after Euro U21 qualifiers against Turkey (2-2) and Croatia (1-0). Albania last played in June. As Euro 2027 hosts they have no qualifiers, and coach Alban Bushi is using this game to look at players, even bringing in an under-19 forward.
Neither attack looks sharp. Albania average 1.2 goals a game and drew a blank in three of their last ten. Ukraine haven't scored three in any of their last ten and managed one or fewer in six. Both teams scored in only four of each side's last ten. Albania's games against Italy, Germany and Turkey all stayed tight, and the only previous meeting between these two ended 2-0.
