Indiana host Philadelphia without the two guards who run their offence, and that changes what kind of game this is more than it changes who is favoured. In Minnesota, two of the leakiest defences in MLS meet with the same back lines and keepers that have been conceding all autumn. One game should be slowed by missing creation, and the other opened up by defending that hasn't been fixed.
Indiana with Haliburton are a ball-movement team with heavy three-point volume, with 43 and 48 attempts in their last two games. Haliburton is now reported out after playing 35 minutes at Milwaukee. McConnell is out and Nembhard is questionable. The only game Indiana have played without Nembhard and Zubac, still with Haliburton, ended 102-110, a combined 212. Without their top two creators, the offence falls to Siakam isolations and thinner handlers like Quenton Jackson.
Philadelphia get Embiid back and will attack Jay Huff inside. But they have shot 30.1% from three over their last ten, and their two full-strength wins finished at 220 and 206. They score through the post and free throws, and that keeps the game in the half court. When the injury news broke, the market moved the side a long way and the total only a little. I think Indiana lose more than Philadelphia gain. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game in Indiana.
In Minnesota, Sporting Kansas City field the same back four and keeper who gave up two late goals to Austin and three to Real Salt Lake. Their injured defenders were already missing in those games. Minnesota have their backup keeper in goal, and they have conceded two or more in four of their last five. They need to attack at home to stay alive, and with Yeboah running at that SKC line they produced 27 shots and a comeback win against St. Louis.
SKC still score: four of their last five games, with Afrifa and André Luiz up front. Minnesota's quiet 0-0 at Houston was one away game, the first without Trapp. That's why I'm siding with goals in Minnesota.
