These are two Premier League games with opposite shapes. At Hull, a deep block that has not lost by two goals in twenty games meets a Brentford side missing both of its ball-winners. At Selhurst Park, a Palace team that ran itself into the ground in Istanbul on Thursday meets a rested Newcastle, and both keepers are short of form. One game should stay tight and the other should open up.
Hull under Jakirovic sit in a 5-4-1, give up the ball and a fair number of chances, and keep the score close. Every defeat in the window has been by a single goal, including against Newcastle and Fulham. Brentford create more, but their usual game is direct, built on height, long balls to Thiago and crosses. A five-man block is not their best setting.
This week Brentford are without Janelt and Yarmolyuk through suspension, the two players who started both recent league games in front of the defence. The likely replacements have never started together, and Jensen has only been back a week or two. A yellow wind warning with strong gusts makes crossing and set pieces unreliable. Hull are missing Butland, which is a real loss, but their back five is the same unit that played the last two games.
At Palace, the same back three, wing-backs and midfield played the full 96 minutes at Besiktas three days earlier. The last time Sage's side came off a Thursday trip, they were 3-0 down at Brighton within ten minutes and conceded five. Their best route forward, low crosses from the wing-backs plus Mateta pressing, goes straight at a Newcastle side that marks the box poorly and whose keeper has been costing goals. Benitez has been below par at the other end as well.
So I'm siding with Hull to keep it close at home, and with goals at both ends in south London.
