This match turns on what happens after the first press rather than on possession alone. Hannover want to win the ball back quickly and feed Hartel and Källman near the box. St. Pauli can answer with a direct release behind that pressure, then attack the next ball from wide areas or a restart.
Wagner has asked Hannover to recover the ball in the first few seconds after losing it. That gives Hartel a short route to Källman, but it also leaves space for Smith to pass beyond the first challenge. St. Pauli used Metcalfe to release Ceesay against Karlsruhe, while Niang can arrive for the follow-up contact.
Pyrka gives St. Pauli another way forward on the flank, and Smith's delivery to Ritzka has already produced a restart chance. Hannover's Gindorf is considered highly unlikely to play after missing the Magdeburg match, which narrows one of their attacking options. St. Pauli's returning Ando and Mathisen are depth here; the main route comes from the players who faced Karlsruhe.
I expect Hannover to press early and St. Pauli to look beyond the first challenge into Ceesay's run. If the first ball does not reach him, Pyrka and Niang can carry the next attack, with Smith able to restart the move from deeper areas. That's why I'm siding with St. Pauli for the result.
