Two basketball games where the home side is priced as the better team, but the evidence for that is thinner than the price suggests. Both are close-game structures where a cushion matters more than a winner.
Chiba Jets host Altiri Chiba. The Jets have the name and a returning guard, but their trouble is defence: they have conceded 90 or more in eight of their last ten and lost five of their last six at home. Altiri are the more efficient shooting side and run guard-led offence, which attacks exactly where the Jets leak. Randolph was cleared to return, but he has no regular-season rhythm yet, and the big man Costello is probably still out. I expect a close game with Altiri strong early and the Jets leaning on home court late. That is why I'm siding with Altiri Chiba with the points.
Hana Bank host KB Stars in the women's league. Both teams lost their openers badly: Hana by eighteen as a clear favourite, KB at home by a wide margin. The only same-matchup evidence points to KB, who won six of the last eight meetings including a win at Hana last February. Rosters may have changed, so I treat that as background, but Hana's leaky opener defence and a cushion that pays on a narrow loss make KB Stars the side I prefer with the points.
