This cup tie pits a Hamburg side that has rebuilt itself as a deep, five-man block against a Frankfurt attack that has gone quiet. Both teams arrive with a different shape from the one that produced their wild early-season scorelines. Hamburg have lost their playmaker and their main finishers, and Frankfurt's coach admits his attack is still searching. The likely picture is Frankfurt with the ball against a packed Hamburg box, and few clean chances at either end.
The season numbers are misleading here. Hamburg conceded twelve in their first three league games, but since switching to a 5-3-2 in September their games have finished with one to three goals, apart from a Hoffenheim match that turned on a red card. Frankfurt scored early and often in August and September. In their last two league games they managed one goal in total, a late winner against a deep Köln side, and they were held to a single shot-heavy goal by exactly this kind of block.
The key matchup is Frankfurt's runners against a patched Hamburg back three of Nandja, Bornauw and Omari, with Tangvik standing in for Heuer Fernandes in goal. That is Hamburg's weak spot, and an early Frankfurt goal is the way this game opens up. At the other end, Hamburg have very little going forward. Vieira went off injured early at Paderborn, and after that they created almost nothing. Now he, Nadir and Poulsen are all out, and Capaldo is missing too. Their attack is down to wing-back crosses, set pieces and Moffi's running.
Frankfurt's coach has said he will rotate, so the XI that labours against a low block may be even less settled. The flow I expect is a tight first half, then a game decided by one or two moments after the break. The cup format matters too: a level score late on goes to extra time, so neither side needs to throw everything forward before the ninety minutes are up.
That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match. The current shapes of both teams point to a game of few goals, even if the season-long numbers say otherwise.
