Both of these Nations League return games come straight after a first meeting, and in both the question is the same: does the earlier game tell you what happens next? In Guatemala the answer is no. The goalless draw in Paramaribo was built on Guatemala sitting deep without two of their forwards, and now they have to win. In Barbados the answer is yes, because the 4-1 was played on the same pitch by the same two teams, and nothing that made it open has changed.
Start with Guatemala and Suriname. Last week Suriname had 62% of the ball, 13 shots and 8 on target, while Guatemala managed just 2 shots. That was a choice. Guatemala defended for a point away from home, and Darwin Lom (suspended) and Rubio Rubin (injured) were both missing.
The stakes are different this time. Suriname top the group on seven points and a draw sends them to the quarter-finals. Guatemala sit on four, so anything less than a win knocks them out and puts them at risk of dropping to League B. Lom is back from his ban and Rubin is in line for a return. Both were part of the side that beat El Salvador 6-0 at home the week before.
Suriname coach Henk Fraser said as much in his press conference: he expects Guatemala to come out and attack, and thinks the pace in his front line will find more space. Suriname won 3-2 in Honduras and beat Martinique 2-1 before that 0-0, so this is a team that creates chances. A home side chasing the game against a quick counter-attacking team is a different game from the one last week.
Now Bermuda and Barbados. Bermuda are the home side on paper, but the match is again at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown, where Barbados won 4-1 three days earlier. That result wasn't a fluke: Barbados had 15 shots with 6 on target and were 3-1 up by half-time.
Bermuda's back line has been the problem all window. They've conceded 11 in three group games. They let in five against St Lucia even though they outshot them 19 to 15, and two late against Guadeloupe. Every one of their last ten matches had at least two goals, and six had four or more.
Bermuda do score, though. They've found the net in all three group games, and Jorj Dublin returns from his two-match ban. Bottom with no points, they have nothing to protect, so expect them to keep coming forward against a Barbados side that has scored in every group game.
