Greece showed in the first meeting that Germany can own the ball without getting clean looks through the middle. The winning goal took a deflection, but the compact defending and quick breaks behind it were real. On home ground, those same passages make this matchup closer than Germany’s last result suggests. That is where this slip rests.
Germany had 76% possession and 16 shots in that meeting, yet produced 1.27 expected goals. Greece stayed narrow, then found chances when they could break forward. They built a lead against the Netherlands in different ways too: a long pass put Fotis Ioannidis through, and pressure on a loose pass set up another goal.
Christos Tzolis went off early against the Netherlands, but his replacement Giorgos Masouras contributed to both Greek goals. Germany’s attack was far more forceful against Serbia, with 32 shots, though Serbia managed only one shot in reply. Greece have already posed a different problem for Germany’s buildup.
