Two NBA home sides, two different kinds of edge. Both games are early-season samples of five or six games, so the picture is built on how the teams fit together rather than on long records. One host is playing a depleted visitor on a losing run, the other is facing a high-scoring visitor whose defence has been leaky.
Golden State against the Clippers: the Warriors are 4-2 with a healthy point difference and have won three straight without Curry, including road wins at Minnesota and Denver. They live on three-point volume and ball movement, and in the last game they made 22 of 46 from deep with 31 assists and 11 steals. The Clippers are 1-4, scoring about 105 a game, with Beal, Ingram and Strus all out and a habit of giving the ball away, with 21 to 26 turnovers in recent games.
The new piece is Draymond Green missing, which takes away their main connector. Even so, the Warriors have home court, equal rest and a clear turnover and steal edge against a thin Clippers perimeter. The Clippers' best route is a free-throw heavy game and a cold shooting night for Golden State, but they have lost their last two by double digits. That's why I'm siding with the Warriors to win.
Lakers against Toronto: Toronto scores a lot, about 122 a game, but it also gives a lot back, conceding 121 at home to Orlando and 117 at Minnesota. The Lakers are at home on equal rest, scored 125 to 129 in their home games and hold an 8-2 head-to-head record, though the rosters were different. Their doubtful players are fringe forwards, so the creators are all there.
This is the closer of the two reads and I treat it that way: Toronto can win on a hot shooting night or if the Lakers turn it over 20 times as they did in Golden State. I still lean on the host with the home scoring and the shakier visiting defence, so I'm siding with the Lakers.
