Two matches where the absence lists change the usual picture. In Lecce, Juventus have lost the bench wingers who have been rescuing their second halves, so turning their possession into a comfortable margin is harder than the name suggests. In Freiburg, Bayern keep their attacking stars but lose the players who protect their defence, and Freiburg's own back line is far from settled. One match points to a tight scoreline, the other to an open one.
Lecce v Juventus. Juve have the ball, about 56% of it on average, but they have scored only 9 goals in 7 league games. They drew 1-1 at Cagliari after 22 shots and lost 3-0 at home to Lazio. They have trailed at half-time in four straight matches with very little created before the break. The second-half lift in those games came from wingers off the bench: Gonzalez changed the Rennes match after coming on just past the hour. Gonzalez and Conceicao are now both out, along with Celik, and Yildiz, Locatelli and Thuram were already missing. Juve also played in the Europa League on Thursday, while Lecce have had a full week.
Lecce bring the same attack and back line that won 3-0 at Udinese, sitting deep and breaking through N'Dri, Geubbels and Fatah. More importantly, they have a scoring route that does not need the ball: Gallo's corners aimed at Gaspar and Tiago Gabriel, which produced two goals at Udine. That hits a Juve defence that conceded from a short corner against Lazio and from a cross against Rennes. Lecce's home block has let good passing sides create, and their midfield is missing Coulibaly, Ilic and Berisha. Even so, a two-goal Juve win needs a finishing level this team has not shown all season, with a weaker bench than before. I'm siding with Lecce to keep this within a goal.
Freiburg v Bayern. Bayern still create a lot. Kane drops deep and feeds runners, and Olise is back after his Champions League suspension. Even without him and Kimmich, they made plenty of chances against Arsenal. What they have lost is protection. Kimmich and Pavlovic, the two players in front of the defence, are out. So are Kim at centre-back and Neuer in goal, with Urbig starting. Bayern's high line has already been caught by runners in behind early in three of their last four games, and they have conceded late when sitting on a lead. With Kompany unavailable, Danks leads the side, as he did against Arsenal.
Freiburg are strong at home, with 22 goals in six home games of their recent run, and they scored in each of the last three meetings at their ground. Their own defence is unsettled too. They conceded five in their last two games, Lienhart and Engelhardt are doubtful, they are on short rest after a Thursday trip to Monaco, and Atubolu is not expected in goal. Whichever team scores first, the game should stay open. Bayern have come back after falling behind and have leaked late after leading, and a Freiburg lead forces Bayern to commit numbers forward. I'm siding with goals at both ends in this one.
