Two Champions League nights shaped by timing rather than by the first whistle. In Istanbul, a Slavia side that presses hard but can barely score walks into a Fenerbahce home attack that tends to finish its work late through the bench. In Stuttgart, two possession sides meet, and Atletico's habit of keeping first halves quiet should keep the game controlled until one late phase.
Fenerbahce v Slavia. Kartal's 4-2-3-1 wins by volume: Greenwood, Kahveci and Oguz Aydin feed a target striker while the full backs cross. Even against Roma they controlled the chances, and their league wins at Rize and against Alanyaspor were finished after the hour by Akturkoglu, Muriqi and Lukaku off the bench. Slavia press man-to-man with a back three and no spare man, so Fener's physical striker gets one-on-one duels all night.
The absence that matters is Chory. Slavia's target striker was sent off at the weekend and left out of the squad, so Chytil leads the line for a team that has scored once in three matches and whose coach says they lack energy. Slavia's missing centre-backs and keeper were already absent last weekend, so their back line is not new. On Fener's side, the turnover-prone midfield pairing from the heavy defeat at Villa is not expected; Kante and Guendouzi should start.
The dangerous window for Fener is the first twenty minutes, when Slavia's press is fresh. Once that passes, the crossing volume should tell, and once Fener lead, Slavia must open up. Slavia conceded in stoppage time twice against Lens and late again at Sabah. That's why I'm siding with Fenerbahce to win this one with room to spare.
Stuttgart v Atletico. Atletico in this sample are not a deep-block side; they keep the ball, allow few shots and decide games after the hour with Alvarez, Lookman and David from the bench. Seven of their last ten first halves had one goal or none. Stuttgart create plenty against weaker teams, but against Dortmund and Bayern their chances dried up, and they failed to score from 24 shots at Hamburg.
Stuttgart's defensive absences were already missing last weekend, so the same back four starts. Atletico lose Romero at centre-back, but both replacements have started this season. Hoeness calls the match a measuring stick where every point is a bonus, so Stuttgart are unlikely to throw men forward at level.
The likely shape is a tight first half and one open late phase, which adds a goal or two rather than a flood. That's why I'm on the side of a controlled, lower-scoring game in Stuttgart.
