Fenerbahçe's 6-0 at Aston Villa looks worse than what our records say happened: Villa had 3.11 xG to Fenerbahçe's 1.73, so the scoreline overstated the gap, and Fener answered with 3.77 xG against Alanyaspor. Slavia have the mirror problem. They lost 0-2 at Sabah while out-creating them (2.04 xG to 1.47, 8 shots on target to 6). So this is a meeting of two winless Champions League sides who each believe their numbers are better than their points, and the real question is whose defence gives way first, since both are patched.
Fenerbahçe first. Per Sports Mole they expect to be without Jayden Oosterwolde (Achilles) and Mert Muldur (knee), and Marco Asensio is uncertain after a muscle issue. Our availability feed lists Oosterwolde and Muldur as out and Asensio as out with a knee problem, which is a different description of the same doubt. At home they have been scoring freely in the league (8-0 over Eyupspor, 3-0 at Rizespor, 3-0 over Alanyaspor), and Kartal has a choice between Lukaku and Muriqi up front after both scored last time.
Slavia's list is longer. Sports Mole has Chaloupek, Ogbu, Ouanda and Jurasek out, with Schranz and Pitak doubtful; Konecny is back from suspension. That is two centre-back types and a wide player gone at once, against a Fenerbahçe side that wins its league games by pushing numbers into the box. One detail I can't settle: Sports Mole's possible XI has Tomáš Chorý leading the line, while our feed lists him as left out by coach's decision. If he isn't there, Slavia's attack leans on Sturm, who scored twice against Lens.
The part I'd watch is not the scoreline but the pattern. Slavia kept 62% of the ball and had 24 shots against Hradec Králové and still drew 0-0, and at Sabah they had the better chances and lost. If Fenerbahçe let Slavia have the ball and hit them behind a rebuilt back line, a repeat of that wastefulness is the version where Fener come out ahead. If Slavia's pressing forces Fenerbahçe's patched full-back area into early errors, the picture changes. What would you look at first, Slavia's finishing or Fener's left side?
Sources: Sports Mole preview (18-19 Oct), plus our match records for xG, shots and availability.
