Fenerbahce against Liverpool sets a pressing favourite with a patched-up defence against a home side whose defence is broken but whose attack is intact. PSV against Club Brugge puts a high-volume possession side against the most open defence they have faced in this competition, and Brugge always score on the break. In both games, the absences open the defences rather than shut down the attacks.
Liverpool's plan is clear: start strongly and press high. Fenerbahce's build-up through Guendouzi and Kante has already given away goals this month against Slavia and Villa. Fenerbahce's centre-back unit is the weakest it has been, with Ake and Oosterwolde out, Oppong a doubt and a barely used replacement possibly starting next to Skriniar. Liverpool still have Wirtz and Barcola, plus Isak or Gakpo up front, so their scoring route is wide open.
The other half of the picture is Liverpool's back line. Frimpong and Bradley are both out, so the right-back is a stand-in, and Gravenberch is no longer screening in front of the defence. Liverpool conceded three in each of their last two Champions League games. Fenerbahce's attackers all played last week, and at home they have been getting four to seven shots on target per game. Under Kuyt they keep the ball rather than park the bus, and Greenwood, Oguz Aydin and Kerem will run at that makeshift right side. That's why I'm siding with both Fenerbahce and Liverpool finding the net.
In Eindhoven, the long PSV absence list is old news. Those players were out for the recent run too, and the current unit has been producing 18 to 20 shots a game, with Til and Mijnans scoring and assisting. Brugge have conceded between 19 and 30 shots in every Champions League match under Leko, with expected goals against ranging from two to almost four.
Brugge's own route is just as steady. Forbs supplies Tresoldi on the counter, and they have scored in every Champions League game this season. PSV are missing Schouten in their rest defence and allowed 14 to 19 shots away in this competition. Leko has talked about a less open game, but the same coach saw the same shot counts in his last two European games. I expect PSV's pressure and Brugge's breaks to produce goals at both ends. That's why I'm siding with a high-scoring match in Eindhoven.
