Three matches, three different shapes. Fenerbahce's international attack faces a rebuilt Alanya whose winning run came against weaker sides. Spor Toto are the stronger team in Kahramanmaraş but have not closed a match out this season. And in Reggio Emilia, Sassuolo and Lazio are much closer in chances created than the table suggests.
Fenerbahce v Alanya. Fener's core is Mirza Lagumdzija at opposite, Anderson and Adis Lagumdzija on the outside, Chinenyeze in the middle and Cachopa setting. The same six played last time out. Their dropped sets came from slow starts while a new setter-hitter link settles. They lost to Ziraat, the champions, and came back from two sets down at Gaziantep with Gurbuz off the bench. Alanya's five-match run came against Istanbul GSK, Istanbul BB and Ordu, three of those wins went to five sets, and one league result was a walkover. Alanya may steal an early set on serve runs, but Fener's serve and finishing are a level above anything Alanya have faced. That's why I'm siding with Fenerbahce to win the match.
Onikisubat v Spor Toto. Spor Toto have Kiyak setting for Camejo and Herrera and took Halkbank to a tie-break, but both their league games went five sets. Against Halkbank they lost a 33-35 fourth set, and at Altekma they lost from two sets up. Promoted Onikisubat win sets only in long endings, like their 30-28 against Gebze, and Moreira and Candido give them that route at home. Fifteen of Spor Toto's last twenty matches went at least four sets. That's why I'm siding with a long match here.
Sassuolo v Lazio. Lazio sit second, but their run rests on clinical finishing and Mandas in goal rather than control: Venezia created 1.89 xG against them and still lost. Their left side with Tavares and Zaccagni meets a Sassuolo right flank and centre-back pair that is reshuffled again and allowed 1.65 and 2.08 xG in the last two games. Sassuolo get Berardi, Lauriente and Esposito back in the XI and scored at home against Juventus and Milan. Lazio's regulars are on short rest and have conceded late once ahead. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends.
