This cup tie pits two attacks without a focal striker against each other. Koln will have the ball but have no one left to finish in the box, and Union are built to sit deep and wait. The numbers since both sides lost their strikers point to a game of few clear chances, very different from what their season-long scoring suggests.
Koln are without Dallinga and Rondic, and Ache is a doubt. With El Mala and Bulter up front, both wide or second-striker types, Koln's last two league games ended 0-0 against Schalke and 0-1 at Frankfurt. Against Schalke they had most of the ball but took eight of their fourteen shots from outside the box. Their own coach and players said afterwards that too few balls got into the box.
Union under Lustrinelli sit in a deep block and score from second balls and set pieces. Without Ilic and Imeri their attack produces about one goal's worth of chances a game. In their last three they conceded none against Dortmund, none against Elversberg, and only one at Augsburg despite playing most of that match with ten men.
The key matchup is Koln's slow circulation against Union's packed box. Union's best route is a set piece against a Koln centre-back pair weakened by injuries, but that is a single-goal route, not a shoot-out.
The cup format matters too. A level score after ninety minutes just means extra time, and the same two teams meet again in the league a few days later, so neither coach needs to chase late. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game here.
