Udinese can defend deeper and seek Davis with a quick first ball, while Milan can attack from both flanks and at restarts. Estoril should create through its midfield links, but Moreirense have an exit into the central space behind the home press. Neither match is explained by possession alone. The quality of the second ball in each penalty area should decide how long an attack lasts.
Udinese's recent defensive gaps have appeared on corner contacts and counters as well as in open play. Milan retain Hutchinson and Pulisic around Ramos, with Modrić supplying restarts and another pass after an initial clearance. Rabiot and Moreira played Milan's European game before becoming unavailable; Ramos missed it but is reported fit. Udinese's Alaba and Zanoli played Lecce but are now out, and Solet is a fitness doubt. Milan can keep finding the box after a level score, so I'm siding with Milan to take the win.
Estoril can bring Holsgrove and Robin forward to feed Carvalho and Guitane, especially around Moreirense's replacement central defence. Maracás played Moreirense's previous league game but is suspended after the cup dismissal; Bondoso played in that league game and is now doubtful. Moreirense still have Andrade to carry the ball beyond Estoril's first pressure, with Vonić or a later runner receiving centrally. Estoril's Viseu match exposed that gap and their new coach has only one senior cup match as evidence for repairing it. That's why I'm siding with Moreirense to take something from this game.
