Elversberg's pressure can take territory, but their advanced shape also leaves space behind the first challenge. Mainz have a direct way past that pressure and a second wave that can reach the box after the first ball. The contest turns on which side turns those first receptions into clean finishes.
Elversberg's Keidel and Poręba can recover second balls and release Petkov, while Mainz can find Becker running into depth or Tietz for the first contact. Caci's delivery and Lee's arrival give Mainz another box route after the ball is recycled. Elversberg created plenty of cup attempts against Darmstadt but put few on target, and Leipzig found space when its defenders advanced.
Kohr is out for Mainz and Amiri's role remains unresolved, so the observed Becker, Tietz, Caci and Lee connections carry the argument. Caci, Lee and Tietz had lighter cup minutes than several Elversberg regulars. I expect Elversberg to press early and Mainz to find chances both beyond that press and after a clearance. That's why I'm siding with Mainz to win.
