Cruzeiro are massive favorites because Sao Paulo is missing their top attackers, but this ignores a couple of huge factors pointing the other way. The seventeen-day break for the home side is far more likely to cause rust than to help them. Combine that with a stubborn visiting side that excels defensively on the road, and the setup heavily favors the visitors holding their ground. They have the defensive structure to frustrate a team that historically struggles when expected to dominate.
Cruzeiro has failed to win fifteen of their last twenty matches when favored by the market. They struggle consistently to break down opponents who sit back. Their attack is averaging less than a goal per game in recent outings and allowing nearly twenty shots per game at home. Now they must try to re-establish their rhythm after a long layoff.
Sao Paulo's attack will definitely miss their absent stars, but they boast excellent underlying road metrics, conceding fewer than ten shots on average. Their remaining squad can execute a disciplined low block that Cruzeiro has historically failed to penetrate. Backing the visitors to stay competitive against a disjointed home side is the right move here.
