Two Champions League home sides that should dictate terms against opponents carrying heavy squad losses. In both, the host creates far more than it concedes, and the visitor's weakest area is exactly where the host attacks.
Como against Manchester United: Como hold about 60 percent of the ball, take close to 19 shots a game and carry an xG near two. They have scored three or more in six of their last ten and conceded in nine of ten. United arrive without four defenders (one suspended) and without two central midfielders, so a makeshift back four will be pulled around by Como's wide runners. Como are short of centre-backs too, which leaves room for Mbeumo, Cunha and Fernandes on the counter. I expect an open game with chances at both ends, and that's why I'm on the goals side here.
Real Madrid against RB Leipzig: Madrid have won eight of their last ten, scoring 27, with home xG around 2.3 and more than seven shots on target a game. Leipzig gave up 17 shots on target and nearly four xG at Bayern just four days ago, and they are missing Ouedraogo in midfield with Baumgartner in doubt. Madrid lose Mendy and Asencio, both out in each of the last three games, but Rudiger and Konate still anchor the centre. Leipzig's open style gives Madrid room to run at them, so I'm siding with Madrid to win by a clear margin.
