In Como against Manchester United, the biggest change is in United's defence. Their centre-back pair has never played together, De Ligt returns after about eleven months out, left-back is a stand-in, and both usual screening midfielders are missing. In Brugge against Lens, both teams have a clear route to goal, because each one attacks exactly where the other is weakest.
Como under Fabregas keep the ball and play through Paz between the lines, with Douvikas finishing and Valle crossing from the left. That central unit is intact, and it is the same group that just won at Fiorentina. United's pivot has to track Paz without Mainoo or Ugarte, and Maguire's partner changes with Martinez, Yoro and Heaven all out. United's cleanest route is Mbeumo and Amad running behind Como's full-backs, plus Bruno's set pieces. But across Leeds, Atletico and Spurs they lost the chance battle each time and created very little after half-time, so a late bench surge is something their recent games do not show. A rain-heavy pitch can make it scrappy, which is why I don't want the result to depend on the draw. That's why I'm siding with Como in this one.
Brugge under Leko play vertically: Vanaken and Vetlesen feed Forbs in behind and Tresoldi finishes. They have scored in each of their last ten matches, and both Champions League games were wide open. Lens under Cahuzac press high with wing-backs pushed up, but they are missing all three senior centre-backs, so a stand-in back three faces Brugge's runners. Going the other way, Lens' press and Thauvin's delivery meet a Brugge defence without Ordonez that faced over twenty shots in both European games. Lens have conceded in every one of their last ten. Whoever falls behind has to push, and the space opens further. That's why I'm siding with goals in Bruges.
