Two matches where one side's missing players hit exactly the part of the pitch the other side attacks. DC United lose their main set-piece and penalty threat and arrive with a defence that has leaked chances on every recent trip. Milan lose two first-choice centre-backs just as Inter's wing-back overloads come to town. In both games the matchup leans one way.
Columbus v DC United: DC will sit in a 4-4-2 block, and Columbus will have most of the ball. That is the state where Columbus built their biggest recent home games, 3.82 xG against Charlotte and 2.27 against Toronto. DC have conceded 1.5 to 2.6 xG in every recent away game and 15 goals in their last five on the road, and they have a backup keeper. With Baribo out, their attack looked like the Toronto version: about one expected goal and little else. In this run Columbus have turned 1-0 leads into two-goal wins four times, and a tight race gives them no reason to stop at one.
Milan v Inter: Milan are without Tomori and Gabbia, and the stand-in back four was just opened up by Bologna. Against sides of a similar level, Milan's attack has been thin: three shots at Bournemouth and eight at home to Bologna. Inter have kept up their shot volume without Lautaro, with 17 shots and 3.35 xG at Bologna. Milan's best route is a quick ball behind Dimarco for Pulisic. The derby may stay cagey for a long time, and that state is covered.
That's why I'm siding with Columbus to win comfortably at home and with Inter in the derby.
