Two NBA games with very different shapes. In one, a home side that has been scoring freely meets a visitor whose rotation has been gutted and who just lost two road games by more than twenty. In the other, two three-point-heavy teams with leaky late-quarter defence meet on a back-to-back for one of them.
Cleveland scored 136 at Milwaukee last time out and has won most of its home games. Oklahoma City lost 96-120 at Dallas and 98-119 at Houston, with its guard and big rotation absences already in those rows, shooting 5 of 32 and 10 of 32 from three and turning the ball over 13 to 14 times. Its lead guard is still producing, but behind him it is thin, so Cleveland's perimeter offence should get extra possessions. That's why I'm siding with Cleveland to win at home.
Houston against Boston is a different story: both teams' recent games have averaged well above 220 combined. Houston gives up about 30 points in each of the third and fourth quarters, Boston launches 40-plus threes, Boston is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Houston's centre Adams is out with Capela doubtful. That points to a fast, high-scoring game, so I'm on the over, overtime included.
