This bottom-of-the-table meeting comes down to which side can still make chances, more than to the league position of either team. Mito have nearly stopped creating, their back line came out of the last match damaged, and they have a new coach in his first full week of training. Chiba at home keep producing chances in several different ways, even when the finishing lets them down.
Look at the numbers from the last five matches. Mito have managed zero to three shots on target per game, their expected goals peaked at about half a goal, and their only goal came in the cup. Chiba's home games tell a different story: almost three expected goals against Nagasaki, sixteen shots against Marinos and a 3-0 against Fukuoka in which they outshot the visitors 13 to 4.
The key matchup is Chiba's direct ball to Erison, with Himeno and Mae arriving, against a rebuilt Mito centre-back pair. Mase was sent off for a last-man foul and Kimoto went off early with a head knock. Yasui's set pieces are a second route that doesn't depend on open play; his corner set up Nduka's header at Urawa. Erison and Yasui both came off injured at Cerezo, but both played again last weekend, so Chiba's main carriers are in place.
New coach Mori wants Mito to win the ball back with everyone, so expect them to press rather than sit deep. That suits Chiba, because a press with a patched last line leaves space behind it. Chiba should have most of the ball in the first hour. Once they score, Mito have to open up, and that is how Mito lost 0-6 at Tokyo and 0-3 to Hiroshima.
Mito did score in both meetings this year, and Chiba have drawn at home when their finishing failed. But Mito's own route to a goal is the weakest part of this match at the moment, and Chiba's late goals conceded came away from home. That's why I'm siding with Chiba to win.
