This matchup tests Ajax's first press against Twente's ability to release a winger beyond it. Ajax can feed Arokodare from wide areas and restarts, while Twente can defend lower and break into the space left by an advancing side. The decisive phase may come after an equaliser, when the next clean wide reception matters more than the earlier possession.
Twente's Taha and Ørjasæter have shown that release against AZ, with Weghorst attacking the next ball and Drommel protecting the other end. Ajax's Gloukh and Ouazane can find Arokodare, but their recent large European score grew after an opponent dismissal. Twente's missing players were also absent against Pafos, while Drommel and the central spine played; Ajax's Brandt and Amrabat returns remain unconfirmed and their available attackers still have a real route.
Twente's lower block and late wide break have already worked against a proactive opponent at equal numbers. That's why I'm siding with Twente to win.
