A London derby where both goalkeepers and both defences carry real question marks, and a Valencia derby where the table hides a coaching change. At Stamford Bridge, each side has a goal route that this week's news has opened. At Mestalla, a tired, rotating Villarreal meet a home block that has only just been built.
Chelsea vs Tottenham first. Chelsea start home games fast and have scored early in five of six. Palmer carrying the ball and Neto isolating a full-back should test a Spurs midfield without Bergvall and Bentancur, with Porro and Robertson just back from injury. But Chelsea give chances away at home even when they win. Bournemouth and Hull both created more than Chelsea's own number in recent games, and Chelsea keep conceding from set pieces inside the six-yard box.
The goalkeepers matter most. Penders makes his first league start in heavy rain against De Zerbi's press, the same press that created plenty at Old Trafford. At the other end, Kinsky struggled with crosses against Coventry. Rain and wind can kill passing, but they also cause handling and footing mistakes, and both goalkeepers are exposed to that.
If Chelsea score early, De Zerbi has said his side go more direct when Chelsea press, and that opens transitions both ways. Spurs' bench of Tel, Kulusevski and Davies scored late against Coventry. I'm siding with an open, high-scoring derby.
Valencia vs Villarreal. Valencia sit 19th without a home win, but most of that record came under the previous coach. Aguirre has had two games, and at home his compact block held Athletic Bilbao to very little. Villarreal come in with three fewer days of rest after conceding 22 shots at Anfield. Perez admits he will rotate and expects a closed, measured game, with Romero out and Saliba doubtful.
Villarreal like to keep the ball and combine through the middle, and that needs quick, sharp passing that a tired, rotated midfield may not have. They also failed to break Elche's block despite creating plenty. Valencia's attack is weak without Sadiq and Diego Lopez, so I am not expecting a home win so much as a slow, tight game that stays level for a long time. That's why I'm backing Valencia not to lose.
