Charlotte and Miami both enter with a clear way to create extra possessions. The first pressure on Charlotte's ball handlers will shape whether those possessions become shots or turnovers. Miami can attack the paint through Giannis and Bam, while Charlotte's response starts on the glass and through its secondary scorers. The next possession after a lead changes hands should be especially revealing.
Charlotte collected 19 offensive rebounds even in its heavy loss to Atlanta, and Reid and Allen helped it answer Brooklyn after the Nets briefly led. Miami gave up 17 offensive boards to Minnesota and 12 to Detroit, so Charlotte's Diabate, Reid and Kalkbrenner have a current matchup route to second shots. Atlanta's 17 steals drove Charlotte's worst turnover game; Miami recorded seven and eight steals in its two games, which gives Schroder and James a more workable first pass. White, Knueppel and Grant Williams missed both Charlotte games and their return is unconfirmed, so this case uses the roles Charlotte actually played.
Giannis has scored heavily in both Miami games, but Miami's defense has not consistently ended possessions and its supporting scoring has varied. If Charlotte turns its boards into points and secures the rebound after Miami's next attack, Reid and Allen can keep a close game in Charlotte's hands. I'm siding with the Hornets to win.
