Castellón's control at Castalia looks more convincing to me than Ceuta's sudden three-goal result. Ceuta showed energy in that win, but it finished against nine men and got two goals from a centre-back. Castellón have been creating chances regularly, and I expect them to dictate where most of this match is played.
Israel Suero and Adam Jakobsen scored Castellón's goals at Leganés from open play. That win followed strong attacking displays against Tenerife, Girona and Albacete, while Castellón have conceded only twice in their seven league matches and kept clean sheets in all three home games.
Ceuta's win over Real Sociedad B needs its full context: the visitors lost one player early and another later, and Carlos Hernández scored twice with headers. José Juan Romero has said Ceuta need more goals from their forwards. Ceuta have scored only twice across their three away league games, which is the part of this matchup that matters most to my call.
