The clearer half of this match is Buriram's attack against Kashima's defence, and it is a mismatch. Buriram score freely at home in Thailand, but against organised continental opponents they have created very little in open play. Kashima's back line has not allowed much quality to anyone recently, home or away. The less certain half is how much a tired, travelling Kashima side can create.
In three games in this competition, Buriram produced between two and five shots on target a game and chance quality worth well under a goal in two of them. Their goals came from a set-piece header at Gamba and a first-half finish at Johor. Kashima, meanwhile, held Pohang to almost nothing and kept Cerezo quiet, both after centre-back Kim's fracture, so his absence is already inside those numbers. Their only away trip in the group also produced a low figure against them despite many shots faced.
The key matchup is Buriram's set pieces, with Dougall's and Mancha's height, against a Kashima defence without Kim. That is Buriram's realistic route. In open play they meet a side that keeps the ball and limits transitions.
Buriram also have a new coach, appointed only a few days ago, so there has been no time to build fresh attacking patterns. Kashima arrive after a long overnight trip and may rotate, which mainly affects their own scoring after the hour, where Cavric and Tokuda have been the source.
I expect a slow, low-event first half with Kashima on the ball and Buriram compact. Kashima may break through late, or it may stay goalless. Either way, my read is that Buriram stay off the scoresheet. That's why I'm siding with this match not seeing goals at both ends.
